Expected Value Calculator — Is Your Strategy Profitable?
A strategy's expected value (EV) per trade is the mathematical core of profitability. Positive EV means the strategy makes money on average; negative EV means it loses regardless of how lucky you get short-term.
Calculator
Result
Notes
- Most binary options brokers offer 70–95% payouts. With a 90% payout, you need >52.6% win rate to break even.
- Pocket Option's 92% peak payout means break-even at 52.1% win rate; anything above generates positive EV.
- Edge over many trades is what compounds. Single-trade variance can swing wildly even with positive EV.
How to use this calculator
The calculator updates as you type. Try different inputs to understand how each variable changes the outcome. The math is the same as a spreadsheet model — but pre-built so you don't have to remember the formula.
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How to interpret the result
The Expected Value Calculator is a planning tool, not a prediction engine. Use the output to compare scenarios before trading: conservative inputs, realistic average results, and a worst-case case where several trades lose in a row. The number is most valuable when it changes behaviour, for example by reducing trade size, pausing after a drawdown, or choosing demo practice before real balance decisions.
Worked example
Start with the default values, then change one field at a time. If the result becomes unrealistic after a small change, that tells you the plan is fragile. For short-term products, small errors in win rate, payout, average loss, or trade frequency can change the outcome dramatically. Keep a written record of the assumption behind each input.
Limits of the calculator
- It cannot verify the future market, payout, account condition, platform availability, or withdrawal outcome.
- It should not be used to justify higher risk after a losing streak.
- It works best together with a demo log, fixed risk cap, and a rule for stopping when results move outside the plan.
FAQ
What win rate do I need to be profitable?
It depends on payout. At 90% payout, break-even is 52.6%. At 80%, it's 55.6%. Pocket Option's typical payouts: 80–92%, so target 56%+ win rate.
How does this differ for CFDs vs binary?
For CFDs, average win and loss are direct dollar amounts. For binary, they're stake × payout (win) and stake (loss).
Why is my real account underperforming the calculator?
Most often: 1) survivorship bias in backtest, 2) slippage and spread, 3) emotional trading violates strategy rules, 4) sample size too small.
What's a good monthly profit target?
5–10% monthly is excellent for retail; 20%+ is professional/institutional; 100%+ is a red flag for scam strategies.
Open a free demo to apply this
Test sizing rules on a $50,000 demo account before risking real funds.